Auto Insurance
Traffic Deaths Up 12% in 2021, but Deeper Dive Into Miles Traveled Shows Fuller Picture
In the first nine months of 2021, an estimated 31,720 people died in traffic crashes in the U.S. This sobering figure represents a 12% jump from the first nine months of 2020.
ValuePenguin estimates the 2021 full-year count would be 43,316 at an annualized level — the highest number of traffic deaths since 2005. At the same time, the U.S. population has grown, as has the number of vehicle miles traveled (outside of the early 2020 stage of the pandemic).
This ValuePenguin report analyzes data from the Federal Highway Administration Office of Highway Policy Information and National Highway Traffic Safety Administration to give deeper context to these traffic death figures. It covers the first nine months of 2020 and 2021, looking at deaths by vehicle miles traveled at the national and state levels.
Despite a more narrow gap between 2020 and 2021, 2021 was shaping up to have the worst fatality rate per mile driven in 14 years.
- Key findings
- Estimates show 2021 could be worst year for traffic deaths since 2005
- Adjusting traffic fatalities to account for vehicle miles traveled puts 2021 data in different light
- Idaho has highest increase in fatality rate per mile traveled
- 30 states see decrease in fatality rate, led by Nebraska
- Full rankings
- Methodology
Key findings
- If traffic deaths in the fourth quarter of 2021 continued at the same rate as in the fourth quarter of 2020, fatalities would be the highest since 2005. At an annualized level, ValuePenguin estimates 43,316 traffic deaths in 2021 — the most since there were 43,510 in 2005. Overall, in the first nine months of 2021, traffic fatalities were 12% higher than during the same period in 2020.
- Adjusting for vehicle miles traveled shows a slightly improved picture between 2020 and 2021 — but not overall. Estimates show that the fatality rate per 100 million miles traveled for the first nine months of 2020 was 1.35. In the first nine months of 2021, that figure was 1.36. However, this figure would wipe out 14 years of progress. The last time roads were this dangerous was in 2007, when the fatality rate per 100 million vehicle miles traveled was also 1.36.
- Idaho saw the largest increase in the fatality rate per mile traveled. The ValuePenguin analysis shows a 20.9% increase in vehicle deaths per mile traveled between the first nine months of 2020 and 2021. After Idaho were Oregon (15.3%) and Nevada (14.5%).
- 30 states saw a year-over-year decrease in traffic fatalities per mile traveled, led by Nebraska. The Cornhusker State saw its fatality rate plummet 25.5%, from 1.29 deaths per 100 million vehicle miles to 0.96. Maine and Maryland came next, with drops of 24.4% and 21.0%, respectively.
- Massachusetts had the fewest deaths per 100 million vehicle miles traveled. ValuePenguin estimates show 0.69 people died per 100 million vehicle miles traveled in the state. On the high end was South Carolina at 1.99.
Estimates show 2021 could be worst year for traffic deaths since 2005
Based on the first nine months of 2021, ValuePenguin estimates 43,316 traffic deaths in the full year.
This would be the number of traffic deaths if unreported figures from the fourth quarter of 2021 continue at the same rate as in the fourth quarter of 2020. (Note: Annualizing is a technique that uses available data to convert a short-term figure into an annual figure.)
The total numbers of traffic deaths in the first three quarters of 2020 and 2021 are as follows:
- 2020 (January to September): 28,325
- 2021 (January to September): 31,720
Decades ago, before many of the vehicle safety standards Americans enjoy today, the number of traffic-related deaths was significantly higher. Annual traffic death figures between 1966 and 1990 were almost all about 43,000 and above.
Motor vehicle traffic fatalities, 1966-2021
Year | Deaths | Year | Deaths | Year | Deaths |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1966 | 50,894 | 1985 | 43,825 | 2004 | 42,836 |
| 1967 | 50,724 | 1986 | 46,087 | 2005 | 43,510 |
| 1968 | 52,725 | 1987 | 46,390 | 2006 | 42,708 |
| 1969 | 53,543 | 1988 | 47,087 | 2007 | 41,259 |
| 1970 | 52,627 | 1989 | 45,582 | 2008 | 37,423 |
| 1971 | 52,542 | 1990 | 44,599 | 2009 | 33,883 |
| 1972 | 54,589 | 1991 | 41,508 | 2010 | 32,999 |
| 1973 | 54,052 | 1992 | 39,250 | 2011 | 32,479 |
| 1974 | 45,196 | 1993 | 40,150 | 2012 | 33,782 |
| 1975 | 44,525 | 1994 | 40,716 | 2013 | 32,893 |
| 1976 | 45,523 | 1995 | 41,817 | 2014 | 32,744 |
| 1977 | 47,878 | 1996 | 42,065 | 2015 | 35,484 |
Source: National Highway Traffic Safety Administration. The 2021 figure represents the total through the year’s first nine months.
In 1991, traffic fatalities began to decline from the higher numbers seen in the 1960s, ’70s and ’80s. Of note, Federal Motor Vehicle Safety Standards (FMVSS) were amended in 1990 to add a side impact protection test on passenger cars regarding severe right-angle wrecks.
Additional FMVSS were added and amended in the years that followed. For example, advanced air bags were introduced in 2000, while “Click It or Ticket” protocols went into effect across the U.S. in 2003. At the same time, traffic fatality numbers continued to trend downward. And although vehicle fatality numbers didn’t always decrease year over year, they remained below 38,000 from 2008 through 2019, falling to an all-time low of 32,744 in 2014.
Despite the pandemic and stay-at-home efforts in effect during early 2020, traffic fatalities began to increase that year. There were a total of 38,680 motor vehicle traffic fatalities in 2020 — a 7.2% increase from 2019. The estimated 43,316 traffic deaths in 2021 represent another significant upward shift.
Speeding causes a significant number of accidents and traffic deaths each year. While we don’t yet know how many traffic fatalities were caused by reckless driving in 2020 and 2021, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration reports that speeding caused the deaths of 9,478 people in 2019.
Related: Here’s how a speeding violation could affect your car insurance rates, depending on where you live.
Adjusting traffic fatalities to account for vehicle miles traveled puts 2021 data in different light
Although the estimated number of traffic deaths in 2021 would be up, so is the number of vehicle miles traveled, or VMT. The Federal Highway Administration reports that Americans traveled 244 billion more miles in the first nine months of 2021 than they did in the first nine months of the previous year. Those 244 billion extra miles represent an 11.7% increase in VMT between the first three quarters of 2020 and 2021.
Despite the 12% jump in traffic fatalities between the first nine months of 2020 and the corresponding period the following year, the fatality rate per 100 million VMT was nearly identical.
Mileage death rate | |
|---|---|
| 2020 (January to September) | 1.35 |
| 2021 (January to September) | 1.36 |
Of course, the mileage death rate for the first three quarters of 2020 and 2021 is elevated compared with previous years. The VMT rate for the past two years is the highest since 2007.
- 2007: 1.36
- 2008: 1.26
- 2009: 1.15
- 2010: 1.11
- 2011: 1.10
- 2012: 1.14
- 2013: 1.10
- 2014: 1.08
- 2015: 1.15
- 2016: 1.19
- 2017: 1.17
- 2018: 1.14
- 2019: 1.11
Vehicle miles traveled in the U.S. have increased steadily over the years as well. In 2006, VMT broke the 3 trillion mark for the first time. The numbers stayed close to or above 3 trillion VMT every year between 2007 and 2019.
It’s worth noting that various factors can influence the VMT rate. The age and experience of the drivers logging miles on the road, for example, can have a big impact on fatality rates. One in 8 fatal crashes between 2010 and 2019 involved drivers ages 15 to 20.
Idaho has highest increase in fatality rate per mile traveled
National figures can mask that vehicle death figures (and year-over-year changes) can differ dramatically by state. Idaho, for example, experienced a mileage death rate increase of 20.9% — the highest jump in the nation. The state’s fatality rate per 100 million vehicle miles traveled was 1.44 in the first nine months of 2021, well above the national rate of 1.36.
Biggest increases in fatality rate per 100 million vehicle miles traveled
Rank | State | 2020 fatality rate per 100 million vehicle miles traveled | 2021 fatality rate per 100 million vehicle miles traveled | % change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Idaho | 1.19 | 1.44 | 20.9% |
| 2 | Oregon | 1.43 | 1.64 | 15.3% |
| 3 | Nevada | 1.21 | 1.39 | 14.5% |
| 4 | North Dakota | 1.10 | 1.25 | 14.0% |
| 5 | Minnesota | 0.75 | 0.86 | 14.0% |
Source: ValuePenguin analysis of Federal Highway Administration Office of Highway Policy Information and National Highway Traffic Safety Administration data. Notes: 2020 and 2021 figures are based on the first nine months of the year (January through September).
Despite the increase in death rates in Idaho, Oregon, Nevada, North Dakota and Minnesota, residents of these states didn’t drive the most miles in 2020 and 2021. Residents of California (the state with the largest population in the U.S.) drove far and away the most miles — 238.0 billion miles in the first nine months of 2021. Idaho residents, by comparison, drove just 14.3 billion miles during the same time frame.
30 states see decrease in fatality rate, led by Nebraska
Although national vehicle fatality rates spiked in 2020 and 2021, some states saw their mileage death rates go down — sometimes by a significant degree. Nebraska experienced a 25.5% decrease in the fatality rate per 100 million VMT between 2020 and 2021. In addition to Nebraska, the other four states with the biggest fatality rate drops are as follows.
Biggest decreases in fatality rate per 100 million vehicle miles traveled
Rank | State | 2020 fatality rate per 100 million vehicle miles traveled | 2021 fatality rate per 100 million vehicle miles traveled | % change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nebraska | 1.29 | 0.96 | -25.5% |
| 2 | Maine | 1.36 | 1.03 | -24.4% |
| 3 | Maryland | 1.13 | 0.89 | -21.0% |
| 4 | Rhode Island | 1.08 | 0.88 | -18.5% |
| 5 | Wyoming | 1.38 | 1.18 | -14.7% |
Source: ValuePenguin analysis of Federal Highway Administration Office of Highway Policy Information and National Highway Traffic Safety Administration data. Notes: 2020 and 2021 figures are based on the first nine months of the year (January through September).
Again, it’s not necessarily the states with residents that drove the fewest miles that saw the biggest decreases in vehicle fatality rates. Nebraskans, for example, drove 15.7 billion miles in the first nine months of 2021. Residents of Vermont, on the other hand, drove just 5.0 billion miles, but their mileage death rate didn’t drop as much.
Fewest deaths per 100 million vehicle miles traveled: Massachusetts
At 0.69, Massachusetts had the lowest fatality rate from January to September 2021. A total of 298 state residents died from traffic-related injuries during that period.
On the opposite end of the spectrum, South Carolina residents faced the highest vehicle fatality rate in the country. In the first nine months of 2021, the state’s fatality rate per 100 million vehicle miles traveled was 1.99.
Full rankings
Biggest increases and decreases in fatality rate per 100 million vehicle miles traveled
Rank | State | 2020 fatality rate per 100 million vehicle miles traveled | 2021 fatality rate per 100 million vehicle miles traveled | % change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Idaho | 1.19 | 1.44 | 20.9% |
| 2 | Oregon | 1.43 | 1.64 | 15.3% |
| 3 | Nevada | 1.21 | 1.39 | 14.5% |
| 4 | North Dakota | 1.10 | 1.25 | 14.0% |
| 5 | Minnesota | 0.75 | 0.86 | 14.0% |
| 6 | Texas | 1.48 | 1.63 | 10.1% |
| 7 | Illinois | 1.23 | 1.33 | 8.2% |
| 8 | Montana | 1.62 | 1.72 | 5.7% |
| 9 | New Mexico | 1.66 | 1.75 | 5.6% |
| 10 | Tennessee | 1.56 | 1.64 | 5.1% |
| 11 | Ohio | 1.22 | 1.27 | 4.5% |
| 12 | New Jersey | 0.93 | 0.96 | 3.9% |
Source: ValuePenguin analysis of Federal Highway Administration Office of Highway Policy Information and National Highway Traffic Safety Administration data. Notes: 2020 and 2021 figures are based on the first nine months of the year (January through September).
Methodology
ValuePenguin researchers analyzed monthly Federal Highway Administration Office of Highway Policy Information data on miles traveled to estimate fatality rates per 100 million vehicle miles traveled for the first nine months of 2020 and 2021.
Researchers did this nationwide and for every state. The fatalities data is via the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration. We ranked the states by the percentage change in the fatality rate per 100 million vehicle miles traveled over this period.